One
of the more obscure and seldom-discussed levers of international finance is the
Eurodollar. When the U.S. dollar assumed status of global reserve currency
after the Bretton Woods system had taken hold in the years following World War
II, offshore dollar markets developed to meet demand for dollars in trade. This
included European banks with dollar denominated accounts and American banks
located inside of Europe with dollar accounts. Morgan Guaranty Trust Company in
New York, for instance, had branches in Europe that offered Eurodollar accounts.
Serious investors should understand the basic functioning of the wholesale
Eurodollar market and its impact on financial markets.
A
bankers acceptance might be considered a predecessor to the Eurodollar. A
bankers acceptance is a time draft on a deposit and a bearer instrument like a
cashier’s check. It has been verified that funds are in the account and
available for withdraw, guaranteed up front. Like a CD, it has a maturity and
pays interest. Bankers acceptances date back to the Middle Ages, when merchants
from different parts of the world didn’t trust each other, so an agreement was
worked out where a bank that both parties trusted would provide means of
settlement. An interbank market denominated in sterling developed in the 18th
and 19th centuries and bankers acceptances traded on an organized
exchange in London. As the United States started to assert itself in the 20th
century, dollar-denominated bankers acceptances grew in popularity. In its
early days, the Federal Reserve bought and sold bankers acceptances, making
markets where London couldn’t or wouldn’t.
A
Eurodollar is not a currency or money per se. A Eurodollar is a time-deposit. What
started out in Europe eventually expanded to include all dollar-denominated
deposits overseas, but still called “Eurodollars” by convention. There are two
parts to the Eurodollar: a bank liability and the underlying Federal Reserve
note that more or less serves as a monetary base. Unlike bankers acceptances,
however, Eurodollars are unsecured.
In
a 1971 paper published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis entitled, “The
Euro-Dollar Market: Some First Principles,” Milton Friedman concluded that
Eurodollars were accounting entries from “a bookkeeper’s pen…short-term
obligations to pay dollars” and “obligations by banking offices outside the
U.S.” (i.e. Morgan Guaranty), which meant the “market” was I.O.U.s trading back
and forth that acted as dollars. It became a parallel banking system operating
in the shadows of normal money flows. The Eurodollar relief valve enhanced
overall dollar liquidity without adding dollars into circulation. As Bretton Woods faltered, the
Eurodollar complex replaced bankers acceptances.
Now
the Eurodollar is unravelling.
Economist
Robert Triffin pointed out that in order to facilitate the global reserve currency,
a nation as a matter of policy must run balance of payments (current account)
deficits, which is de-facto capital flight. The Eurodollar is an ad hoc,
makeshift contraption that evolved after dollars started pouring into the
Marshall Plan and Japan, Inc. As the Soviet Union ramped up crude oil production
in the new dollar-centric world, European banks gladly opened their arms to the
Russian petro-state. For obvious reasons New York would not be a safe place to
park oil profits. The Bank of England included Moscow Narodny Bank (MNB) in its
network of dealers and protected it even after the Cuban Missile Crisis.
As
post-war economies grew, the United States would not be able to sustain
deficits necessary to keep up with global economic growth, so stress would
build up in the system. There are economic repercussions with perpetual trade
deficits and there is a confidence boundary with endless quantitative easing. A
currency can stand only so much intervention.
The
U.S. dollar was the top performer in the 2018 Wall Street Journal Dollar Index,
finishing up 4.3%. In reality, though, the dollar is strong not because America
is so great. The dollar is strong because there are not enough of them.
“The
rising dollar doesn’t happen in a straight line. It occurs in these various
episodes. Every time there is this dollar event, another part of the Eurodollar
system gets knocked offline. Some form of capacity, whether it’s geographic or type
of derivatives after each of these crises, it comes offline never to return. The
overall impact has been something like a ratchet effect. The global economy is
further and further pressured after each time. There is no recovery in the
dollar system, which is I think tells us a great deal about why there is no
recovery in the economy,” says Jeffrey P. Snider, head of Global Investment
Research at Alhambra Investments.
Soaring
budget deficits mean more dollars required to fund government largesse, while
the Fed’s quantitative tightening removes U.S. dollars from the global economy,
causing a “dollar shortage.” The Eurodollar breakdown is endemic of this. To
add confusion to an already fragile artifice, Eurodollar futures are settled in
Libor, which is also going away.
Dedollarization
is happening the world over, with Russia and Iran setting up payment systems
outside the dollar and a new oil contract in Shanghai denominated in yuan. Sanctions
and tariffs have consequences. Change in this scale and magnitude in a reserve
currency regime has only happened once in modern times. When the dollar
replaced pound sterling, the world was in disarray. As the dollar fades, we may
see more than just a trade war.